Loans Secured by Small Business Administration Guarantees Drive Large Increases in New Small Business C&I Lending

By Christi May-Oder, Assistant Vice President and Thomas Hobson, Senior Supervisory Analyst Survey data indicated that outstanding balances on small business commercial and industrial (C&I) loans increased significantly in the second quarter of 2020.

Payments Crises and Consequences

By Qian Chen, Christoffer Koch, Gary Richardson and Padma Sharma Novel econometric analysis using U.S. state-level data shows that payments suspensions during banking crises lengthen and deepen downturns.

Did the Federal Reserve Break the Phillips Curve? Theory and Evidence of Anchoring Inflation Expectations

By Brent Bundick and A. Lee Smith Communicating a longer-run inflation objective better anchored inflation expectations in the United States, which may explain the weaker relationship between inflation and unemployment in recent years.

Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data

By Yifei Lyu, Jun Nie and Shu-Kuei X. Yang Incorporating cross-country data helps forecast U.S. GDP growth in economic downturns.

Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk

By Anusha Chari, Karlye Dilts Stedman and Christian Lundblad A sudden decrease in the risk appetite of global investors increases the probability of uncommonly large bond outflows from emerging markets.