Latest Research

The Financial Market Effects of Unwinding the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet

By A. Lee Smith and Victor J. Valcarcel
January 04, 2021 | Research Working Paper
The gradual unwinding of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet from 2017 to 2019 tightened financial conditions, though this tightening did not simply manifest as a reversal of the effects of the original balance sheet expansion.

Market Integration and Bank Risk-Taking

By Kaniska Dam and Rajdeep Sengupta
December 30, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Increased bank competition from market integration affects banks’ risk-taking behavior in ways beyond a simple increase in the number of competitor banks.

Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies

By Marianna Kudlyak, Murat Tasci and Didem Tuzemen
December 30, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Minimum wage increases during the 2005–18 period led to declines in vacancy postings among occupations with wages at or near the minimum wage.

Mining for Oil Forecasts

By Charles W. Calomiris, Nida Cakir Melek and Harry Mamaysky
December 23, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Forecasting oil market outcomes remains a challenge even with novel text-based analysis.

Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market

By Huixin Bi and W. Blake Marsh
December 22, 2020 | Research Working Paper
Policy interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic stabilized the municipal bond market and shifted the pricing of localized credit risks from short-maturity bonds to longer-dated bonds.
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