Regional Economic Update
By Ricardo C. Gazel & Chad R. Wilkerson
The Tenth District economy remains solid, although economic
activity in the district is showing clear signs of a substantial slowdown. Employment
growth, one of the best indicators of economic activity at the sub-national level, has
fallen behind the national rate in 1999 for the first time in ten years. Moreover, the
slowdown in employment growth has been widespread across sectors and states within the
Tenth district.
The State of Tenth District Manufacturing
By Ricardo C. Gazel & Jason P. Martinek
Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District remained
sluggish in the second quarter and beginning of the third quarter of 1999. But there are
signs the sector’s troubles may be easing. Manufacturing employment rose in July
following four months of decline, and the sector remained in better shape in the district
than in the nation, where employment remains well below previous levels. This article
reviews recent developments in the manufacturing sector using the results of our most
recent survey of manufacturers, employment data from the Department of Labor, and the
latest available statistics on manufacturing
exports from district plants to foreign countries.
Survey
of Agricultural Credit Conditions
By Kendall McDaniel
Agricultural credit conditions in the Tenth District improved slightly in the second
quarter of 1999, according to a survey of 313 district agricultural
bankers. Farmland values in the district edged up in the quarter but remained below
year-ago levels. After declining for a year, demand for farm loans edged
up in the second quarter. Survey respondents indicated fewer loan renewals or extensions
and a slight improvement in repayment rates. Still, the outlook for
the farm economy remains guarded as commodity prices remain low, and several indicators of
credit conditions in the district are below year-ago levels.
What's Hampering Job Growth in the District’s Services Sector?
By Ricardo C. Gazel and Chad R. Wilkerson
Employment growth in the Tenth District has fallen behind the national rate in 1999 for
the first time in ten years. Although all economic sectors have been experiencing slower
job growth, the services sector, due to its size, has played perhaps the most important
role in the slowdown of overall employment growth in the district. While services
employment elsewhere in the nation continues to grow rapidly, the district has witnessed
very little job expansion in services so far in 1999 (Chart 1). In fact, the district
services sector has added jobs during the first seven months of this year at less than a
third of the rate enjoyed by the nation as a whole.
Economic Indicators
The actual Economic Indicators tables from this issue of the Regional Economic Digest are
not available because data have been revised.
Regional
Economic Indicators are available and updated monthly by research staff.
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