Regional Economic Digest
Third Quarter 1996


Regional Economic Update
By Kendall McDaniel

The Tenth District economy grew moderately in the second quarter of 1996. The district's energy and farm sectors picked up, but activity slowed in manufacturing and construction. Employment in the district was unchanged and the unemployment rate edged up. District employment, which is one measure of overall economic performance, slowed in the second quarter. Employment was unchanged in the second quarter after a sharp gain in the first quarter. Job gains in the service sector were offset by job losses in construction and trade. District employment rose 2.6 percent over a year earlier. In the nation, employment rose 0.7 percent in the second quarter and 2.0 percent over a year earlier.

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Survey of Tenth District Manufacturers
By Tim R. Smith

Manufacturing activity in the Kansas City Federal Reserve District slowed somewhat in July from a moderate pace in April, according to a quarterly survey of manufacturers across the district. The survey takes a snapshot of manufacturing activity during the first month of each quarter by asking plant managers about a variety of manufacturing indicators (Table 1). Most measures of manufacturing continue to show expansion, but at a slower pace than in April. Inventories of materials and finished goods were unchanged at district factories. Price increases for raw materials were about the same in July as when the survey was last taken in April. Prices received for finished goods remained stable. Manufacturing activity generally remained stronger than a year ago, and manufacturers expressed optimism about the outlook for the next six months.

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Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions
By Scott Ryckman and Alan Barkema

Agricultural credit conditions in the Tenth Federal Reserve District improved during the second quarter of 1996, according to a survey of 352 agricultural bankers. Rising farmland values, surging grain prices, and improving demand for farm loans signaled a stronger farm economy. Other signs, however, cast a shadow on the district farm outlook. Losses continued for district cattle feedlots and ranches, and many winter wheat producers harvested a disappointing crop. As a result, repayment rates on farm loans remained weak, despite some modest improvement.

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Sources of Employment Change in the Tenth District
By David S. Kraybill

Creating jobs is often the primary goal of economic development policy. To help target their job creation efforts, policymakers generally examine net changes in the official employment figures. But relying solely on net changes can often hide important gross changes that influence the dynamics of job creation and destruction. Knowing where jobs are currently being created and destroyed in an economy can help policymakers design and target their economic development efforts.

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Economic Indicators
The actual Economic Indicators tables from this issue of the Regional Economic Digest are not available because data have been revised. Regional Economic Indicators are available and updated monthly by research staff.

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